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☆ Breakingviews: Globalization woes create new winners and losers
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Over the past seven decades, the world economy has grown 14-fold, powered by a 45-fold expansion in global trade, according to the World Trade Organization. World trade as a percentage of GDP peaked at 61% in 2008. The first is rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and China. The retrenchment is probably going to be gradual: global trade was still worth 57% of world GDP last year. For 2024, the WTO said growth in goods trade would pick up to 3.3%, virtually unchanged from its April estimate of 3.2%.

Persons: Chris Helgren, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping “, ”, Caroline Freund, Aaditya Mattoo, Alen Mulabdic, Michele Ruta, Ursula von der Leyen, it’s, Laura Alfaro, Davin Chor, Dario Perkins, GlobalData’s Perkins, Peter Thal Larsen, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Warehouse Union, REUTERS, Reuters, World Trade Organization, Economic, Reuters Graphics Reuters, HK, Amperex Technology, European Central Bank, GlobalData, Lombard, Companies, Bureau of Labor Statistics, ECB, Thomson Locations: Vancouver , British Columbia, Canada, Netherlands, United States, China, Beijing, Washington, U.S, Taiwan, Mexico, Vietnam, People’s Republic, Latin America, Chile, Brazil, Ukraine, Geneva

☆ Globalisation woes create new winners and losers
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

The ramifications for global markets are significant, with Washington and Beijing's determination to loosen dependence on each other fraying long-established supply chains. Many central banks target 2% inflation; market gauges of traders' long-term U.S. and European inflation expectations are running higher , . Anna Rosenberg, head of geopolitics at the Amundi Investment Institute, said Sino-U.S. tensions, provide a "new lens" through which to analyse emerging markets' growth prospects. But the performance of big U.S. tech stocks and global share indices are vulnerable to signs of Chinese retaliation. With China underperforming global stocks, investors are split on how to approach this market.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Joe Biden, Goldman Sachs, Wouter Sturkenboom, Laura Alfaro, Anna Rosenberg, Christopher Rossbach, J, Stern, Carole Madjo, Wendy Liu, Baird, Patrick Spencer, Naomi Rovnick, Kripa Jayaram, Riddhima, Vineet, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Louise Heavens Organizations: REUTERS, EMEA, APAC, Northern Trust, Reuters, Research, Harvard Business, Amundi Investment Institute, INDIA RUSH, Barclays reckons, EU, Apple, China, Barclays, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: West, China, Washington, Western, Germany, Northern, Europe, FRIENDSHORING Washington, Vietnam, Mexico, Mongolia, Philippines, Sino, U.S, India, Beijing, COVID, CHINA

It is not even certain that the decline in China's U.S. import share represents a true delinking, they said. Yet in the background, the researchers noted that China had "stepped up" its trade and investment activity with Vietnam and Mexico, as well as other countries. "The U.S. could well remain indirectly connected to China through its trade and global value chain links with these third-party countries," they argued. Prices for goods from some countries, moreover, were beginning to rise. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: JACKSON, deglobalization, Laura Alfaro, Davin Chor, Alfaro, Chor, What's, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Biden, Trump, Federal, Harvard Business School, Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth, Fed, Thomson Locations: , Wyoming, China, Ukraine, freefall, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, Vietnam, Mexico

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